So guys, I have noticed a sudden uptick in the number of posts on various platforms stating a pilot shortage is coming. One post I saw on LinkedIn, from someone with a golden tick, which said that pilot shortage is expected by 2032 and the need of pilots will be in excess of 6,00,000 with Asia and the Middle East driving this demand. This got me thinking. I have been flying for 15 years and every now and again I hear about this pilot shortage, but I’ve never seen one. So I started looking at different sources, who of any credibility is saying what, just to see what I’m missing.
In this blog I’ll walk you (in the same honest way I write by other blogs) through the real situation of the pilot market in India today. What the numbers say, what the industry says, what the training pipeline looks like and whether this path really offers the opportunity you hope for.
Officially, the government’s press note and DGCA responses in 2024 said there is no generalized shortage of pilots, though there is a shortage of captains on certain aircraft types, and the regulator manages these gaps by issuing temporary permissions for foreign pilots when needed. That’s DGCA / MoCA’s public position. Click here for the press release.
It also says between 2019 and mid 2024 there were a total of 5710 CPLs issued. From another page, DGCA has issued 1342 CPLs in 2024. So the total CPLs in the 5 year period is 6,313. The real question is how many of these actually got jobs and when? Have the airlines hired that many fresh first officers over the last 5 years? To put things into perspective: the largest airline in India today has close to 5,500 total pilots. The number of aircraft it has, far out numbers any other airline in India. So now you must think, is there really going to be pilot shortage in India?
Now lets look at the other half of the story. India’s aviation market is growing fast. Big carriers are ordering hundreds of aircraft which translate directly into pilot demand. But when are these aircraft going to be delivered? Its going to take 10 to 15 years! And a good percentage of these are going to be replacement to older aircraft.
Add to that government goals: more airports, more routes and long-term forecasts from industry bodies. You get projections that India will need thousands more pilots in the next 5 to 15 years. Estimates vary, some public statements from ministers and trade notes have talked about numbers in the tens of thousands over the next 15 to 20 years. CAPA and other analysts have suggested several thousand more pilots will be required just by FY2030. The precise figure is hard to say. But it is clear that the need for pilots will increase. The real question is when?
The Mismatch - Why Both Sides Make Sense?
Why future demand is real?
- India’s aviation market is growing: more passengers, more airports, more aircraft. Hence the need for many more pilots.
- Many airlines placing large aircraft orders and expanding fleet. E.g., MoCA cited fleet orders of 1,700 aircraft.
- With expansion, retirements, aircraft type changes, the demand for experienced pilots, especially captains rises.
Why the “too many trained pilots” side is also real?
- The license-to-job path is not straight: Having a CPL doesn’t guarantee an airline job right away. Many fresh CPL holders face long waits or uncertain slots.
- Infrastructure/training quality issues: Some say that many trainees still lack flying currency, experience, knowledge or the right aircraft type to be immediately employable.
- The “ pilot shortage” is more acute at the senior level (type-rated captains) and in certain aircraft types, not necessarily at the fresh First Officer level.
So although there may be future “need”, the present absorption of supply is uneven.
Here’s a quote from ThePrint – “The vacancy rate has slowed down. Airlines are announcing about 20-30 vacancies per year [which is lower than before Covid]… in a money intensive industry like this, survival is difficult” Click here for the full airticle.
The Training Pipeline
In short the training pipeline is in full swing, and then some. There are 2 airlines in India that are currently running a cadet pilot program. One airline has been running a cadet program very successfully for a few years now. It may have started out as a ‘you scratch my back, and I’ll scratch yours’ ideology, with both sides winning, but now its become merely a profitable pilot feeding machine for the airline . At this moment there are multiple batches of cadets being trained at multiple flight schools in India and abroad. The other airline has started this cadet program more recently and has stated that it plans to open its own flight school just to train their cadet pilots.
For the cadets, although it’s a more direct path to the airline cockpit, they may have to wait 2 months or 2 years or anything in between or outside this period to join, after completion of training. No one can say. It may be 3 months today but by the time the cadet finishes training 1-2-3 years from now, who knows what that waiting period is going to be. BUT what’s certain is that the queue is just getting longer.
How does this cadet program really help the airline? When someone buys an aircraft, the manufacturer gives a certain number of type ratings and simulator slots to them for free. Now with these airlines placing such large orders of planes, the number of type rating slots they get is very large too. Along with this, the I’m sure the airlines also get better rates from flight schools for CPL training. But these benefits are not passed on to the cadet and are charged the full cost.
These 2 airlines know that they will be able to fill their need of pilots in the long term from the cadet pilot program, and are better placed for any “pilot shortage” in the future. At the same time they hire the conventional CPL holder to meet their short term needs. Click here to read my blog comparing the cadet program and conventional training.
All the other airlines and other operators depend only on the conventionally trained CPL holders. One airline has already over hired it’s need for pilots against the number of aircraft it has. Due to the slow delivery of aircraft, many of the pilots are not flying, awaiting training, even after been employed for over 2 years now.
All the flight schools (at least in India) are full, to the extent that some are taking upto 3 years just to do 200 hours of flying. That’s 5.5 hours a month. Ridiculous! Click here to read my blog on finding flight schools.
What I Think About The Pilot Shortage
There are many people who advocate for one side over the other. But who do you believe? ME? Honestly there is merit to both sides to the pilot shortage claim. But here’s where I lean towards one side – I have come to realise that we live in a time when everyone just wants to get rich and fast! They say and do things without caring about how others are affected. Especially in this industry where there is so much money involved. SO, every time someone tells you about a pilot shortage, think about how they are profiting from this? Flight Schools, Ground Schools, Agents, Airlines, Who is selling what to you? One thing is clear today, that there is very little hiring going on right now!
Let’s think about this for a moment.
Flight schools and Ground schools will go out of business if they do not have students. An agent will not earn a commission if they cannot sell a certain flight school to you. Surely an airline can’t profit from this! Well, they are just like any other company hiring qualified professionals. The more qualified professionals there are, the lesser they are valued and the lesser the company needs to pay them. Makes sense why pilot salaries have only reduced over the last decade. That’s just one way of looking at things, and just my personal opinion. So again I ask you to think, is someone being paid to tell this story of a pilot shortage? Think about who is profiting from the picture they are painting for you.
I have even heard, over the years, that many pilots will be retiring soon and that will drive the pilot shortage too. For this to be true, for a person to retire at 65, they should have started training at least 40 years ago, if not more. How many people do you think that is? When I started training, almost 20 years ago, there used to be only a handful of flight schools in India and only about 10 to 15 students at a time. So, the number of people who retire every year for at least the next 5 to 10 years is not going to be a significant one that would drive a pilot shortage.
I think there will be a rise in the demand for pilots, but it’s going to be staggered. A shortage is farfetched. There are more CPLs being issued every year than the number of jobs the airlines are giving out. Keep in mind, the airlines do not hire just new CPL holders, they also hire from different airlines, charter companies, flight instructors and other piloting jobs. All the hundreds of aircraft that are on order will come over a period of 10 years and beyond. So at no point there will be a sudden gap between the demand and ever growing supply.
What This Means For You (Aspiring Pilot)
- If you want to be a pilot because it sounds glamorous on Instagram, pause. The path is expensive, long and uncertain. That’s not to scare you, it’s just realistic. No one’s sharing their struggles on Instagram.
- If you love flying and have the resources or a solid funding plan, it can still be worth it. India’s aviation market will create opportunities, but timing and luck matter.
- Consider alternatives and back-up plans. Ground school, instructor ratings, flying smaller aircraft. Do not have a mind block about other pilot jobs. These paths can get you hours and pay while keeping the airline dream alive.
- Ask flight schools about recent DGCA / school audit results and safety records. Quality matters. A cheaper course with poor equipment can cost you far more in time and risk. Click Here to read my blog on finding the best flight school.
- Can you afford the training cost + loan/EMI with a possible downtime if a job is delayed?
- Can you handle the cost of living, waiting period, relocation, housing, etc, until you start flying? Click Here to read my blog on the real costs to becoming a pilot.
For the “pilot shortage” claim to work in your favour, you’ll need to be ready ahead of time, but not too early either and not assume automatic job immediately.
Why do I say this? It is better for you hear for the hard truth now rather than spending all your money and coming to the same realization 2 or 3 years later. Better to accept it now, plan ahead for the worst case and make better choices for yourself. Make informed decisions, rather than getting fooled into making one. Take for example – all airlines suddenly stopped hiring around march 2025. Even though the airlines have been receiving new aircraft every month. Even those with joining dates were told of delays without explanation. So I really can’t see the pilot shortage today. The only thing that’s certain in this industry is the fact that things can change overnight. Click here to read my blog on the future of Indian Aviation.
Here’s a quote from The Hindu, an interview with the Director-General of DGCA, Mr Arun Kumar (2023) – “If you add all these numbers, you will have 13,000 pilots in total. But there are still nearly 5,000 to 6,000 pilots who are out there in the market looking for a job” Click here for the full article.
Final Approach
I have given you the numbers and linked appropriate articles for you to decide for yourself how true is the myth of the pilot shortage. In all honesty, India has a genuine future demand for pilots, but today’s market has structural issues: many licensed but unemployed or under-employed pilots. The “pilot shortage” is real mostly at senior levels and specific aircraft types, while it’s less clear for “fresh First Officer jobs” in India. What this means is that there will be a higher demand for pilots but only in the future, 5 years later, maybe. For an aspiring pilot, the training cost and job risk and timing must all be considered, not just the “vacancy” figure. Be honest with yourself and the person funding your training.
With that I hope I have made you think more in depth and to question what you hear and see on social media. Don’t be blind to the blitz and glamour on social media. Don’t get swayed by the fancy words or sweet sales talk. Remember that people are paid to say and promote things. Anyone today can pay and get that blue tick, and there is hardly anyone talking about the real struggle beyond that fancy hotel. I hope that you can openly question what’s out there.
These are of course just my opinions based on my experiences and gained knowledge. Differences in opinion are welcome.
